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RE: Is the Economy Really Recovering? - 11/4/2009 1:52:59 PM
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GroupW
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Good to know I'm not the lone optimist / data freak.
BT
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“For every problem, there is a solution that is simple, elegant and wrong.” -H.L. Mencken
"Most people would rather die than think; in fact, they do so." -Bertrand Russell
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RE: Is the Economy Really Recovering? - 11/4/2009 2:01:41 PM
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davemiller7
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But since we are still at the bottom of the recession/depression, then I don't think the administration and its fawning media is being honest crowing nearly every day that the recession is over. At least say that there are signs that it is easing or that the end may be in sight. To pronounce it over is really a stretch, IMHO.
quote:
ORIGINAL: GroupW
I'm basically an optimist at heart.
However, I think people need to keep in mind that at the bottom of a recession, two things are normal.
First, it's fairly rare for people to actuay believe the economy is recovering until long after the economy has actually turned. In a sense, your response to my optimism is exactly what people should expect at the bottom.
Second, it's normal for the employment picture to appear fairly bleak for a number of months after GDP has turned toward growth.
At some point, you have to put emotion and fear aside and just look at what the data are telling you. At thus point, the lion's share of the data is pointing up. Many of the data series that continue to point down are the lagging indicators that are supposed to be pointing down at this point in the cycle, like employment.
BT
FYI- I've put my money where my mouth is and went ultra-aggressive buying leveraged equities in March along with high risk mortgage bonds. So far, it's working for me.
_____________________________
"Here I stand. I can do no other. God help me. Amen." - Martin Luther
The Prayer of Protection
The light of God surrounds me,
The love of God enfolds me,
The power of God protects me,
The presence of God watches over me.
Wherever I am, God
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RE: Is the Economy Really Recovering? - 11/4/2009 2:11:33 PM
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davemiller7
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That mess about the water and the cute little fishies is totally wrong, IMHO. I can't understand how the state of California can let it go on. It seems to me that the Governator should begin acting like one, call out the National Guard, and open up the waterways. This is another case of environmentalism running amok. Fish, or any other creature, should never take precedence over the welfare of humans.
quote:
ORIGINAL: mapachito13
I still think that we are on the downward slide. My clients have seen a drop in orders to the tune of 25-40% a level they didn't see in any previous recessions. If it weren't bad enough the water authority is screwing up the agricultural business in the San Joaquin valley creating massive unemployment and driving up the cost of food for the rest of the nation.
Fish or jobs? To me, this is a no-brainer!
_____________________________
"Here I stand. I can do no other. God help me. Amen." - Martin Luther
The Prayer of Protection
The light of God surrounds me,
The love of God enfolds me,
The power of God protects me,
The presence of God watches over me.
Wherever I am, God
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RE: Is the Economy Really Recovering? - 11/4/2009 2:13:33 PM
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mapachito13
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quote:
ORIGINAL: GroupW
CA may well be continuing to decline. No doubt it's worse there. Nationally however, orders are increasing.
In most years, living in CA is thought to be a good thing.
It hasn't been true however in the past 3 or so. You folks have been hammered pretty hard. It may take a bit longer to see any light at the end of any tunnels.
CA is definitely losing its luster. I've heard stories of how some business owners have lost so much business that their reserves that were thought to be able to last them for a while have been depleted in months. Their are literally tens of thousands of people that are unable to pay their mortgages due to pay cuts or loss of jobs altogether. It's interesting how the government never publishes the data (or stresses) on how many run out of unemployment benefits.
Business owners such as myself don't get to collect unemployment.
What's also a shame is that they seem to fling education to the budget cutting wolves first while police and fire seem to still be getting increases. I've noticed that the city police have been out with their radar guns in force. Police have become a city revenue generator rather than a service to protect the public safety.
Of course raises for those in government aren't frozen.
From where I am sitting things look very bleak and will be for most until the job picture improves and you don't have hundreds applying for a handful of openings.
Right now it seems that people are caught in an economic catch 22.
_____________________________
Peace Sells....But Who's Buying!
"Freedom comes with an educated mind." - Jacqueline Rushing
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RE: Is the Economy Really Recovering? - 11/4/2009 3:50:49 PM
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GroupW
Posts: 2533
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From: Up in the hills of Colorado (very BIG hills...)
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Unfortunately, you have the dubious distinction of being the 3rd worst economy of the 50 states, if measured by the unemployment rate, behind Michigan and Nevada.
Technically, you're 4th behind Rhode Island as well, but I think a state has to be bigger than my back yard before it actually counts.
BT
_____________________________
“For every problem, there is a solution that is simple, elegant and wrong.” -H.L. Mencken
"Most people would rather die than think; in fact, they do so." -Bertrand Russell
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RE: Is the Economy Really Recovering? - 11/4/2009 3:55:47 PM
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GroupW
Posts: 2533
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From: Up in the hills of Colorado (very BIG hills...)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: davemiller7
But since we are still at the bottom of the recession/depression, then I don't think the administration and its fawning media is being honest crowing nearly every day that the recession is over. At least say that there are signs that it is easing or that the end may be in sight. To pronounce it over is really a stretch, IMHO.
I agree - I think it's a bit early to call it over. GDP growth is only one consideration in calling a recession or a recovery. If we're still losing 150-200 thousand jobs a month, I think calling the recession over is a bit early. I expect you'll see that statistic improve in the next quarter, but for now I think it's a bit premature to declare victory.
The economy is improving, GDP is growing, but I wouldn't say it's over.
_____________________________
“For every problem, there is a solution that is simple, elegant and wrong.” -H.L. Mencken
"Most people would rather die than think; in fact, they do so." -Bertrand Russell
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RE: Is the Economy Really Recovering? - 11/4/2009 4:40:39 PM
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davemiller7
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I agree, there are some optimistic signs. I hope they are for real.
quote:
ORIGINAL: GroupW
quote:
ORIGINAL: davemiller7
But since we are still at the bottom of the recession/depression, then I don't think the administration and its fawning media is being honest crowing nearly every day that the recession is over. At least say that there are signs that it is easing or that the end may be in sight. To pronounce it over is really a stretch, IMHO.
I agree - I think it's a bit early to call it over. GDP growth is only one consideration in calling a recession or a recovery. If we're still losing 150-200 thousand jobs a month, I think calling the recession over is a bit early. I expect you'll see that statistic improve in the next quarter, but for now I think it's a bit premature to declare victory.
The economy is improving, GDP is growing, but I wouldn't say it's over.
_____________________________
"Here I stand. I can do no other. God help me. Amen." - Martin Luther
The Prayer of Protection
The light of God surrounds me,
The love of God enfolds me,
The power of God protects me,
The presence of God watches over me.
Wherever I am, God
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RE: Is the Economy Really Recovering? - 11/4/2009 5:08:16 PM
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GroupW
Posts: 2533
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Let's all hope so. It's getting a bit wearisome.
_____________________________
“For every problem, there is a solution that is simple, elegant and wrong.” -H.L. Mencken
"Most people would rather die than think; in fact, they do so." -Bertrand Russell
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RE: Is the Economy Really Recovering? - 11/4/2009 6:53:50 PM
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wing2000
Posts: 1067
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From: ...the beautiful Sonoran Desert
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quote:
I agree - I think it's a bit early to call it over. GDP growth is only one consideration in calling a recession or a recovery.
And recall that when this recession started, we were not informed until one year after it started. However, the full impact didn't really come to bear until the fall of 2008 (following the financial crisis)...
So while there is a job lags now...keep in mind the GDP numbers were in negative terroritory for some time before the layoffs started in earnest.
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RE: Is the Economy Really Recovering? - 11/4/2009 8:56:28 PM
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leanboy
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It feels like things are still getting bad but at a much slower rate...so my vote is "no" we are not recovering. Stock markets are "recovering" mainly because of all the cuts companies are doing.
I have an engineering degree, been laid off since February and it's a nightmare trying to get any job. I'm under qualified for most engineering jobs because I don't have the 5-15 yrs experience they're looking for. I'm overqualified for almost any non-engineering jobs and employers think I will jump the ship once I find something in my field (even after dumbing down my resume a bit for these jobs). Right now I'm doing dead end jobs including one at the deli department of a local grocery store. I will admit though that I am having a lot more interviews now than I did earlier on in the year but then again most are not really related to my field.Employers tell me that they're getting like a ton of resumes. After talking to friends and family, I'm considering going back to school in the new year to study something like accounting.
Thankfully I got no responsibilities but benefits will run out shortly after Christmas (perfect timing  ). If I don't go back to school, I may have to do the grocery thing full time till I get something better.
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RE: Is the Economy Really Recovering? - 11/4/2009 11:09:13 PM
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GroupW
Posts: 2533
Joined: 11/16/2007
From: Up in the hills of Colorado (very BIG hills...)
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Sorry you are having such a difficult time.
Just to reiterate a point I've made before - if you look at the employment picture, you will nearly w
always come away with a picture of the economy that reflects how the real economy was performing 3-12 months ago. It won't tell you how the economy is doing today.
Employment and job availability are among the last things to show improvement, and typically start to show positive motion 3 months to a year after the economy has started growing.
So, take heart - things should start to improve for you soon. As an engineer, you are likely to see an improvement before many of the rest of us.
Best wishes on your job search. Been there and done that. It's no fun.
_____________________________
“For every problem, there is a solution that is simple, elegant and wrong.” -H.L. Mencken
"Most people would rather die than think; in fact, they do so." -Bertrand Russell
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RE: Is the Economy Really Recovering? - 11/5/2009 2:19:11 PM
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mapachito13
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Productivity gains may be bad news for job seekers
"Companies across the economy are finding ways to do more with fewer workers, dimming hopes that hiring will take off anytime soon.
Employers became leaner and more efficient in the third quarter. Wages, meantime, remain flat or falling. The result is that productivity — output per hour of work — jumped at the fastest pace in six years.
The good news for companies, though, may be bad news for the jobless. As long as companies can get their workers to produce more, they have little reason to hire — at least until consumer spending picks up. And the squeeze on incomes could depress consumer spending, putting the economic recovery at risk."
It seems that the government and economists are grasping at any silver lining they can get their fingernails into, but until the unemployment numbers make a turnaround the recovery will be only in the realm of the economists and the corporate heirarchy (who will congratulate themselves with some more outlandish bonuses) and not in the realm of John Q. and Jane Q. public whose wages will remain stagnant while the cost of their benefits and the general cost of living continue to rise, further eroding their buying power.
< Message edited by mapachito13 -- 11/5/2009 2:25:32 PM >
_____________________________
Peace Sells....But Who's Buying!
"Freedom comes with an educated mind." - Jacqueline Rushing
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RE: Is the Economy Really Recovering? - 11/5/2009 2:31:16 PM
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wing2000
Posts: 1067
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From: ...the beautiful Sonoran Desert
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quote:
As long as companies can get their workers to produce more, they have little reason to hire — at least until consumer spending picks up.
....so what if American consumers finally decide that spending on borrowed money is really not such a great idea in the long run?
If the American consumer changes his spending behaior, what econmic driver will replace it?
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RE: Is the Economy Really Recovering? - 11/5/2009 3:03:11 PM
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JMiller
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From: Tampa Bay Fla USA
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It is a jobless recovery.
Definition of jobless recovery; The great men of the earth richer, and the workers get hosed.
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O Lord GOD, remember me
Callin it the way I see it
Are you drinking from the river Denial?
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RE: Is the Economy Really Recovering? - 11/5/2009 3:18:30 PM
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mapachito13
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quote:
ORIGINAL: JMiller
It is a jobless recovery.
Definition of jobless recovery; The great men of the earth richer, and the workers get hosed.
Excellent and succint way of putting it!
_____________________________
Peace Sells....But Who's Buying!
"Freedom comes with an educated mind." - Jacqueline Rushing
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RE: Is the Economy Really Recovering? - 11/6/2009 12:59:29 PM
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GroupW
Posts: 2533
Joined: 11/16/2007
From: Up in the hills of Colorado (very BIG hills...)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: JMiller
It is a jobless recovery.
Definition of jobless recovery; The great men of the earth richer, and the workers get hosed.
They said that in 1983 as well. And 1992, and ....
At every recession, people say that. We saw a jobless recovery after the 2001 recession, but there are a couple of things to keep in mind - first, it was hardly a recession. Many economists don't count it as one. Given that the dip was barely noticeable, the resulting recovery was fairly modest as well. There's usually a symmetry there.
Second, productivity growth was fairly robust through that period, so there was little need to add workers. Also, unemployment was generally at minimal levels, so the economy didn't have much potential to hire new workers - most of the easily employable people already had jobs.
But yes, income disparities are growing larger. I find that worrisome in the long run.
In the news today:
Unemployment rises to 10.2% - not a good number. There's some technical noise in that number, which is why I typically prefer to look at the payroll figures instead.
The payroll figures show a loss of 190 thousand jobs last month. Economists expected to lose 175,000 jobs, so we lost a bit more than we thought we should.
Not a good number until you stop to realize that it's the lowest it's been in a year, and last month's number was a loss of 216 thousand. So, not a good number but it's moving in the right direction.
Digging deeper, there are a few tidbits that are interesting. One of the things economists have been concerned about is the lack of hiring of temporary workers. Temp hiring tends to foreshadow hiring for permanent jobs, so we've been looking for some kind of movement there, but so far had not seen it. Temp jobs increased at a robust pace last month - so we're finally seeing some signs of improvement there that we've been looking for for a while.
< Message edited by GroupW -- 11/6/2009 1:46:27 PM >
_____________________________
“For every problem, there is a solution that is simple, elegant and wrong.” -H.L. Mencken
"Most people would rather die than think; in fact, they do so." -Bertrand Russell
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