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RE: Is the Economy Really Recovering? - 10/15/2009 1:58:30 PM
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ourgreatestSource
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quote:
ORIGINAL: GroupW
Basically, providing unemployment benefits, keeping education cheap, and making new businesses easy to form accomplishes exactly what you say wealthy nations should do.
Yeh but we are talking about a crises and recession we are in, we need emergency plans into place not regular stuff.. and I think we have just some benefits as checks people receives (?)...I have no idea how much are those checks unemployed people receives. But they receive no free classes coupons or have trainning in new skills etc I think.
Cheap education is great in regular times because people without working can afford just free education because they have to eat and have shelter as priorities. Hope educations business come up with "adopt a worker without a work" and give free coupons classes and that retired Educators volunteer to give classes to unemployed looking for learning new skills..
Community can come together rent places and take care those belong to themselves but we do need real pro people giving theri times as instructors and we need real diplomas also, for people be taken seriously in their studies. 
I hope many retired teachers around who know a lot and are great people do feel inspired to teach again for free. Hope they have a great retirement goin on to allow them to do it for free..
Ok..for now I rest my case. Thanks.
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RE: Is the Economy Really Recovering? - 10/16/2009 10:23:44 AM
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GroupW
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Interesting data again today:
Industrial production growth this past month - +0.7% vs +0.2% that was expected. Another postive surprise.
Capacity utilization - 70.5% vs. 69.6% expected. Yet again - the economy shows data stronger than expected.
Consumer sentiment on the other hand dropped more than expected. The U. of Michigan index was 73.5 last month and expected to be 74.0 this month but came in at 69.5.
Seems folks on this thread aren't the only ones having trouble believing the actual data.
Bank earnings data continue to come in very mixed. Goldman had near record earnings, while B of A and Citi had poor results. As folks on this thread have rightly pointed out, it will take some time before the financial ship rights itself.
A bit of oddness in the consumer sentiment data - expectations of inflation rose, but people's opinions on the direction of employment fell. A slight bit contradictory since it's hard to have both going on at the same time (absent an external price shock like the oil embargo in the 70's.)
< Message edited by GroupW -- 10/16/2009 10:31:35 AM >
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"Most people would rather die than think; in fact, they do so." -Bertrand Russell
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RE: Is the Economy Really Recovering? - 10/16/2009 11:12:42 AM
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GroupW
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For what it's worth, I'd be willing to post data updates like the above for anyone interested. Just let me know if you find it helpful and I'll continue doing that for a couple of weeks.
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“For every problem, there is a solution that is simple, elegant and wrong.” -H.L. Mencken
"Most people would rather die than think; in fact, they do so." -Bertrand Russell
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RE: Is the Economy Really Recovering? - 10/16/2009 10:50:41 PM
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relady
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IMO, any positive news is worth hearing. Thanks GW.
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RE: Is the Economy Really Recovering? - 10/17/2009 6:28:59 PM
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relady
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quote:
Oh, the cokeheads! My wife watches that show LOL, yeah. I can't stand to listen to them, but my hubby used to watch it all the time when Ratigan headed it up.
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RE: Is the Economy Really Recovering? - 10/19/2009 7:14:45 PM
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GroupW
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Not much news today.
Homebuilder index dipped downward, a bit lower than expected and probably related to the expiration of the first time homebuyer tax credit.
With about 10% of publically traded companies having reported Q3 earnings, about 62% of them are reporting better than expected profits.
Looks like Japan may have ticked over into positive territory on GDP growth last quarter.
More data available tomorrow.
_____________________________
“For every problem, there is a solution that is simple, elegant and wrong.” -H.L. Mencken
"Most people would rather die than think; in fact, they do so." -Bertrand Russell
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RE: Is the Economy Really Recovering? - 10/19/2009 10:18:06 PM
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iluvatar
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quote:
ORIGINAL: relady
quote:
Oh, the cokeheads! My wife watches that show LOL, yeah. I can't stand to listen to them, but my hubby used to watch it all the time when Ratigan headed it up.
Oy, it's not just the constant shouting that's in your face - the camera work is really neurotic, too. They have two cameras on boom arms constantly swooping in from either edge of the set, with a camera on each person and constant, relentless jumping between camera angles (no more than 2-3 seconds apart), regardless of who's actually talking. Then there's the omnipresent motion graphics. I get exhausted watching it.
The funniest part, though, is the contrast with the chick who's so lethargic that she's practically on the verge of drooling on herself.
-Dan.
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Well, I've been to one world fair, a picnic, and a rodeo, and that's the stupidest thing I ever heard come over a set of earphones.
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RE: Is the Economy Really Recovering? - 10/20/2009 1:33:47 AM
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wing2000
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quote:
Mentioned this before, but employment is typically the last item on the list to show a recovery. If you are looking at employment stats, you're essentially trying to guage a recovery by looking at the very last item in the data series to actually recover. Usually GDP has been growing for up to a year or two before you see significant employment changes.
...and it will take a good while...this is sobering information:
The U.S. has shed 7.2 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, the deepest contraction since the Great Depression. Even if the job market started spitting out jobs as fast as it did during the 1990s boom, adding 2.15 million private-sector jobs a year, the U.S. wouldn't get back to a 5% unemployment rate until late 2017.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125599093581195087.html?mod=igoogle_wsj_gadgv1&
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RE: Is the Economy Really Recovering? - 10/20/2009 10:07:59 AM
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GroupW
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There's a little bit of lying with statistics there. The 2017 figure holds if you just look at the difference in the actual number of jobs created, which took about 10 years to add 10 million jobs. That would give you a 2017 type of date for a complete recovery.
The problem is that we're starting this recession with 25% more jobs than we had available in 1990 - so it should take 25% less time to cover the same distance. If add jobs at the same overall growth rate that we did in the 90's, the answer isn't quite so dire. Basically, you can't take a nominal # of jobs as the growth rate without allowing for the fact that it should be applied to a higher base.
The point remains - full job recovery is going to take a while.
In other news, housing starts came in slightly weaker than expected, but pretty close. Still terrible times to be a homebuilder.
People worried about inflation still don't have any data to support their concern. Producer prices (excluding the volatile food and energy components) declined by 0.1% for the month, and were higher by 1.8% for the year. Very, very tame inflation numbers, so the Fed has lots of runway to use before raising interest rates or curtailing lending programs.
_____________________________
“For every problem, there is a solution that is simple, elegant and wrong.” -H.L. Mencken
"Most people would rather die than think; in fact, they do so." -Bertrand Russell
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RE: Is the Economy Really Recovering? - 10/20/2009 12:10:14 PM
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its_GO_time
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quote:
The point remains - full job recovery is going to take a while.
yeah, like, infinity.
I'm convinced that the administration, will settle for an unemp. rate of around 7-8% and call that "success". All the European countries, we idolize, all have rates comparable to that, constantly.
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RE: Is the Economy Really Recovering? - 10/20/2009 12:34:20 PM
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GroupW
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quote:
ORIGINAL: its_GO_time
quote:
The point remains - full job recovery is going to take a while.
yeah, like, infinity.
I'm convinced that the administration, will settle for an unemp. rate of around 7-8% and call that "success". All the European countries, we idolize, all have rates comparable to that, constantly.
It's not likely our rate would settle out at European style rates. There are some subtle differences in how unemployment works in each country and other nuances that bias the European rate a bit higher. Not least would be the proportion of discouraged workers here in the U.S that bias our number to the low side. Our actual rate of unemployment is quite possibly understated relative to Europe.
I wouldn't be surprised if the number settled out around 6% though - there was a day when we thought that was pretty good.
_____________________________
“For every problem, there is a solution that is simple, elegant and wrong.” -H.L. Mencken
"Most people would rather die than think; in fact, they do so." -Bertrand Russell
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RE: Is the Economy Really Recovering? - 10/21/2009 1:45:23 AM
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Ps103
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quote:
I wouldn't be surprised if the number settled out around 6% though - there was a day when we thought that was pretty good.
When I was in college, they taught that 6% unemployment was considered full employment.
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RE: Is the Economy Really Recovering? - 10/21/2009 9:23:06 AM
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GroupW
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Me too. You can probably push it to 5%, but as we found out, there is a risk in doing so.
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“For every problem, there is a solution that is simple, elegant and wrong.” -H.L. Mencken
"Most people would rather die than think; in fact, they do so." -Bertrand Russell
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RE: Is the Economy Really Recovering? - 10/21/2009 9:24:52 AM
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GroupW
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Today's news:
Wells Fargo records record earnings - one of the best managed retail banks in the nation.
Morgan Stanley records a profit - "back in black", to quote the famous stock analyst Ozzy Osbourne.
_____________________________
“For every problem, there is a solution that is simple, elegant and wrong.” -H.L. Mencken
"Most people would rather die than think; in fact, they do so." -Bertrand Russell
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RE: Is the Economy Really Recovering? - 10/21/2009 2:22:40 PM
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Ps103
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ETA: I bought some Salem, just so I would have "skin in the game" here.
It was really cheap--but it is up 340% since I bought it. And I cannot for the life of me figure out why, even though I am not complaining.
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Fasten your seatbelts...it's going to be a bumpy night.
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RE: Is the Economy Really Recovering? - 10/21/2009 3:01:14 PM
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Fritzpw_Admin
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For those interested it is SALM on Nasdaq
quote:
ORIGINAL: Ps103
ETA: I bought some Salem, just so I would have "skin in the game" here.
It was really cheap--but it is up 340% since I bought it. And I cannot for the life of me figure out why, even though I am not complaining.
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RE: Is the Economy Really Recovering? - 10/21/2009 5:41:44 PM
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GroupW
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Ps103
Almost all of my stocks are recovering nicely. But the best ones were the ones I put in orders for before I gave it all up for Lent  . (I am really glad I did not see what things looked like at the bottom, too!)
I wonder if now would be a good time to see if someone is bored enough to replace our windows? When we tried to get them done before, the job was just too small for anyone who would do what we wanted...maybe it ain't such a shabby job right now?
Contractor that lives near me says he's getting a few people to look at things that never would have before. Also mentioned he's still getting turn-downs from people who just don't seem to want to adjust to reality.
Can't figure out why SALM would be up either - slight improvement Q1 to Q2 on revenues, which might add a bit of value but looks to me more like the "small denominator" effect. Doesn't really matter if it's working for you though, now does it?
_____________________________
“For every problem, there is a solution that is simple, elegant and wrong.” -H.L. Mencken
"Most people would rather die than think; in fact, they do so." -Bertrand Russell
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RE: Is the Economy Really Recovering? - 10/21/2009 5:45:52 PM
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GroupW
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More update info.
Fed's Beige Book report on the economy shows recovery or stabilization in most districts.
_____________________________
“For every problem, there is a solution that is simple, elegant and wrong.” -H.L. Mencken
"Most people would rather die than think; in fact, they do so." -Bertrand Russell
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RE: Is the Economy Really Recovering? - 10/21/2009 6:21:22 PM
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Frontporch
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quote:
GroupW - More update info.
Were you able to watch this Frontline:
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/warning/
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In faith there is enough light for those who want to believe and enough shadows to blind those who don't. Pascal
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RE: Is the Economy Really Recovering? - 10/21/2009 7:08:30 PM
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GroupW
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Never saw that - is that a piece on Brooksley Born at CFTC by any chance?
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“For every problem, there is a solution that is simple, elegant and wrong.” -H.L. Mencken
"Most people would rather die than think; in fact, they do so." -Bertrand Russell
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RE: Is the Economy Really Recovering? - 10/21/2009 7:17:29 PM
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Frontporch
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quote:
GroupW - Never saw that - is that a piece on Brooksley Born at CFTC by any chance?
Yes, fascinating...although I don't understand "Derivatives"....
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In faith there is enough light for those who want to believe and enough shadows to blind those who don't. Pascal
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RE: Is the Economy Really Recovering? - 10/21/2009 7:27:52 PM
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GroupW
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That's OK. Neither do half the people that trade them.
Frankly, some are pretty easy to understand and others get hideously complex. Every once in a while I have to explain what a "payer swaption" is, and I get to watch people's eyes glaze over.
On Brooksley - it was sad the way she was treated. Not all of her ideas were correct, but they were more correct than the folks that got her fired. Very bright lady.
_____________________________
“For every problem, there is a solution that is simple, elegant and wrong.” -H.L. Mencken
"Most people would rather die than think; in fact, they do so." -Bertrand Russell
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