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RE: HOUSE DEMS- "BOOM BOOM OUT GO THE LIGHTS" - 8/3/2008 6:45:03 PM
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earthless
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quote:
ORIGINAL: iluvatar
quote:
ORIGINAL: earthless
quote:
ORIGINAL: iluvatar
The issue isn't really what we can do to fix right now - we can't do anything. For the short term, we're screwed. We should have been working on this for the last 20 years. But some in the Democratic party overstated their info about global warming, Republicans overreacted the other way and rejected most/all of the climate science outright, and with no immediate economic impetus to do anything, nothing happened.
The issue is really what we do about the future.
Imagine if Bill Clinton had signed that bill in 1995 that he refused to? We would have been seeing the goods of that already, a few years ago even.
Which bill was that? To drill in ANWAR? Ok, say he had. What effect would it have on oil prices?
-Dan.
Supply & demand - and the illusion of such drive market prices. When we start to drill our own resources, when we start to get what Mexico, Venezuela, Canada has been getting off of our shores, the prices will drop because they will know we won't keep sitting idly by fully dependent on what they decide to sell to us.
It's not an end all be all solution - but until we can find an alternative energy source that really works - we can off set a lot of our dependency on foreign oil.
It's a matter of national security.
_____________________________
Probing Today's Religious Movements | Promoting Doctrinal Discernment & Critical Thinking | Providing Reasons for Christian Faith & Ethics
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RE: HOUSE DEMS- "BOOM BOOM OUT GO THE LIGHTS" - 8/3/2008 7:18:48 PM
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iluvatar
Posts: 1451
Joined: 4/12/2005
Status: online
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quote:
ORIGINAL: earthless
quote:
ORIGINAL: iluvatar
quote:
ORIGINAL: earthless
quote:
ORIGINAL: iluvatar
The issue isn't really what we can do to fix right now - we can't do anything. For the short term, we're screwed. We should have been working on this for the last 20 years. But some in the Democratic party overstated their info about global warming, Republicans overreacted the other way and rejected most/all of the climate science outright, and with no immediate economic impetus to do anything, nothing happened.
The issue is really what we do about the future.
Imagine if Bill Clinton had signed that bill in 1995 that he refused to? We would have been seeing the goods of that already, a few years ago even.
Which bill was that? To drill in ANWAR? Ok, say he had. What effect would it have on oil prices?
-Dan.
the prices will drop
How much?
-Dan.
_____________________________
Well, I've been to one world fair, a picnic, and a rodeo, and that's the stupidest thing I ever heard come over a set of earphones.
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RE: HOUSE DEMS- "BOOM BOOM OUT GO THE LIGHTS" - 8/3/2008 8:59:35 PM
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earthless
Posts: 5397
Joined: 4/11/2005
From: where pigeons are getting their sweaters ready....
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quote:
ORIGINAL: iluvatar
quote:
ORIGINAL: earthless
quote:
ORIGINAL: iluvatar
quote:
ORIGINAL: earthless
quote:
ORIGINAL: iluvatar
The issue isn't really what we can do to fix right now - we can't do anything. For the short term, we're screwed. We should have been working on this for the last 20 years. But some in the Democratic party overstated their info about global warming, Republicans overreacted the other way and rejected most/all of the climate science outright, and with no immediate economic impetus to do anything, nothing happened.
The issue is really what we do about the future.
Imagine if Bill Clinton had signed that bill in 1995 that he refused to? We would have been seeing the goods of that already, a few years ago even.
Which bill was that? To drill in ANWAR? Ok, say he had. What effect would it have on oil prices?
-Dan.
the prices will drop
How much?
-Dan.
Let me bust out my crystal ball, one sec'..
_____________________________
Probing Today's Religious Movements | Promoting Doctrinal Discernment & Critical Thinking | Providing Reasons for Christian Faith & Ethics
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RE: HOUSE DEMS- "BOOM BOOM OUT GO THE LIGHTS" - 8/3/2008 9:04:47 PM
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colliefan
Posts: 2519
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quote:
Figure out ways to structure your life so that you can minimize your energy expenses
Like Al Bore? Have a 20,000 sq foot home? Fly in an inefficient private jet?
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RE: HOUSE DEMS- "BOOM BOOM OUT GO THE LIGHTS" - 8/3/2008 9:05:07 PM
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Dubya
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quote:
quote:
ORIGINAL: iluvatar
Which bill was that? To drill in ANWAR? Ok, say he had. What effect would it have on oil prices?
-Dan.
quote:
the prices will drop
How much?
-Dan.
Why do so many people deny the impact of increasing oil supply will have on prices? We actually lived through such a scenario in the late 70s and early 80s. This is not an arguable position.
I was working for a major US oil company during those years working on energy conservation projects. In developing the economic justification for those projects we were forecasting crude oil prices as high as $80/barrel by the 1990s. We were not counting on the rapid development of fields throughout the world in the 80s. You might recall that crude oil prices dropped below $20 per Barrel in the early 80s and remained below $30/Barrel throughout the 90s. The price increases over the past few years is largely due to declining capacity in existing fields and, of course, the rapid industrial development of countries like China and India.
It really doesn't matter how much we conserve in this country - that will have little or no impact on the price of crude considering the rapid increase in demand of China and India. Our conservation efforts amount to a drop in the ocean! The only logical relief which can be expected to the high energy costs we see today is rapid exploration and development of new fields - in our country as well as abroad. Alternative energy sources are certainly a part of the picture, but oil and gas remain the most cost effective energy sources.
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RE: HOUSE DEMS- "BOOM BOOM OUT GO THE LIGHTS" - 8/3/2008 9:18:21 PM
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colliefan
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quote:
considering the rapid increase in demand of China and India.
These countries have stopped underwritng the cost of fuel and their citizen will need to start paying "market price." Another thing that must be factored in the population of these countries.
There must be a two-pronged approach to the problem; drill for as much oil as possible while, at the same time develop alternative fuels that don't negatively impact the food chain.
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RE: HOUSE DEMS- "BOOM BOOM OUT GO THE LIGHTS" - 8/3/2008 9:43:46 PM
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blessedinnyc
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Dubya
Why do so many people deny the impact of increasing oil supply will have on prices? We actually lived through such a scenario in the late 70s and early 80s. This is not an arguable position.
I was working for a major US oil company during those years working on energy conservation projects. In developing the economic justification for those projects we were forecasting crude oil prices as high as $80/barrel by the 1990s. We were not counting on the rapid development of fields throughout the world in the 80s. You might recall that crude oil prices dropped below $20 per Barrel in the early 80s and remained below $30/Barrel throughout the 90s. The price increases over the past few years is largely due to declining capacity in existing fields and, of course, the rapid industrial development of countries like China and India.
It really doesn't matter how much we conserve in this country - that will have little or no impact on the price of crude considering the rapid increase in demand of China and India. Our conservation efforts amount to a drop in the ocean! The only logical relief which can be expected to the high energy costs we see today is rapid exploration and development of new fields - in our country as well as abroad. Alternative energy sources are certainly a part of the picture, but oil and gas remain the most cost effective energy sources.
While I don't disagree that drilling will be helpful, I would argue that consumption displacement/reduction adds more value for two reasons:
1.) If we increase production by 200kbpd by opening a new oil field, we will have to replace that field in 20 years. The same thing with conservation isn't true- figure out a way to reduce our consumption by 1% with no impact on the economy, and not only will you not have to replace that in 20 years- it will likely grow over 20 years as our energy consumption increases. So saving 200 kbpd today might translate into saving 300 kbpd in 20 years.
2.) The US produces ~7 mmbpd of crude. It consumes ~19 mmbpd. A 1% increase in oil product shifts the Supply and Demand curves by 70 kbpd. A 1% decrease in oil consumption shifts the supply and demand curves by 190 kbpd. In other words, there are likely more opportunities on the conservation side than the demand side.
So it seems to make sense for us to devote at least 19/26ths of the energy budget towards funding either fuel-saving technologies and programs or alternative energy (including nuclear).
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RE: HOUSE DEMS- "BOOM BOOM OUT GO THE LIGHTS" - 8/3/2008 10:21:55 PM
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Leon_Figg3
Posts: 522
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blessrfinnyc,
What does doing all we could do: conservation, ecologically safe drilling for oil, and researching alternative fuels and all that will be needed to with it, affect your computations in regard to doing nothing except hope that one day some ecologically safe alternative fuel is developed?
_____________________________
To whom much is given, much is expected. Luke 12:48
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RE: HOUSE DEMS- "BOOM BOOM OUT GO THE LIGHTS" - 8/3/2008 10:35:02 PM
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Dubya
Posts: 521
Joined: 10/25/2006
From: Texas
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quote:
ORIGINAL: blessedinnyc
While I don't disagree that drilling will be helpful, I would argue that consumption displacement/reduction adds more value for two reasons:
1.) If we increase production by 200kbpd by opening a new oil field, we will have to replace that field in 20 years. The same thing with conservation isn't true- figure out a way to reduce our consumption by 1% with no impact on the economy, and not only will you not have to replace that in 20 years- it will likely grow over 20 years as our energy consumption increases. So saving 200 kbpd today might translate into saving 300 kbpd in 20 years.
Your estimate for a single field is pretty good, but actually ANWAR will exceed that amount and if we include the production from additional offshore production we could actually see an increase of more than double your number.
The percentage savings from conservation is on the same order of magintude used in the 70s. Considering the great strides made in energy efficiency in cars, powerplants, and industry since then I suspect there is a case for diminishing returns. In other words, I think your conservation numbers must be overstated.
quote:
2.) The US produces ~7 mmbpd of crude. It consumes ~19 mmbpd. A 1% increase in oil product shifts the Supply and Demand curves by 70 kbpd. A 1% decrease in oil consumption shifts the supply and demand curves by 190 kbpd. In other words, there are likely more opportunities on the conservation side than the demand side.
So it seems to make sense for us to devote at least 19/26ths of the energy budget towards funding either fuel-saving technologies and programs or alternative energy (including nuclear).
Like I said above, the energy problem we face is global - not local. It makes no sense to talk about a shift in supply/demand curves in the U.S. alone. All the conservation we can achieve amounts to a drop in the bucket compared to the rapid increase in demand in the developing world. It is only going to get more severe as other developing nations begin increasing their energy demands.
If you really want conservation to be the answer, we should start by getting China to implement some of the programs we implemented in the 70s. That could generate some real savings.
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RE: HOUSE DEMS- "BOOM BOOM OUT GO THE LIGHTS" - 8/3/2008 10:56:58 PM
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HighPlainsDrifter
Posts: 1084
Joined: 9/22/2005
From: Buffalo Trading Post
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quote:
By standing in the dark, arguing for a plan that the Department of Energy concluded will have negligible effects on the price of oil? Sounds more like a bunch of grandstanding that's heavy on rhetoric, but light on facts.
If I thought the DOE had any real idea about where there is and isn't oil, or what the volumes were there, I might actually care about that tired old excuse repeated ad nauseam. You forgot to follow it up with "we can't drill our way out of this mess". That's specifically how that thought is supposed to be concluded.
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Lutefisk--The Piece Of Cod That Passeth All Understanding
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RE: HOUSE DEMS- "BOOM BOOM OUT GO THE LIGHTS" - 8/4/2008 12:03:59 AM
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blessedinnyc
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Leon_Figg3
blessrfinnyc,
What does doing all we could do: conservation, ecologically safe drilling for oil, and researching alternative fuels and all that will be needed to with it, affect your computations in regard to doing nothing except hope that one day some ecologically safe alternative fuel is developed?
Well for one thing, it does reduce the deficit. And I think that ultimately, a market-driven solution isn't that bad.
However, the Dems have put forward an energy plan in the past that generally involves conservation and replacing oil. My simple point is that to be pragmatic, we'll have to both increase drilling and decrease consumption and to be practical, our cheapest and easiest gains will be made through conservation.
If Americans would simply take the time to check their tire pressure, (as some on this board have mocked Obama for suggesting), we could cut imported oil by 500-700 kbpd. This is roughly as much energy as ANWR might produce when the field peaks, and it would require a much smaller investment.
Another quick and easy fix would be to reduce the national speed limit to 55 mph. Even the American Enterprise Institute, which opposes this, concedes that it could reduce oil consumption by 200 kbpd.
These are all of the freebies. T. Boone Pickens is currently developing a wind field in north Texas that will produce perhaps 100 kbpd-equivalent energy- and it's not costing the federal government a dime. (The state government has agreed to invest in some electrical infrastructure, but my understanding is that they will be able to recoup this expense through electricity tariffs.)
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RE: HOUSE DEMS- "BOOM BOOM OUT GO THE LIGHTS" - 8/4/2008 9:37:57 AM
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freakofnature
Posts: 739
Joined: 1/17/2008
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Addressing this to all dems/lilberals... (in robotic cartoonish voice)
"TAKE ME TO YOUR LEADER!"
It seems that the dem's can't get their act together as it relates to energy:
Yet another O'BAMA flip/flop...er uhh... Shift
from report:
ORLANDO, Florida (CNN) – Barack Obama said Friday that he would be willing to compromise on his position against offshore oil drilling if it were part of a more overarching strategy to lower energy costs.
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RE: HOUSE DEMS- "BOOM BOOM OUT GO THE LIGHTS" - 8/4/2008 11:27:15 AM
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earthless
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Anyone else catch George Stephnapolous' weekend program with Nancy Pelosi? He asked her TEN times about why she would not have a straight up or down vote on drilling. Every time she dodged the question.
I have to give him credit on being persistent. She is unreal and makes Slick Willy blush in her stone-walling.
_____________________________
Probing Today's Religious Movements | Promoting Doctrinal Discernment & Critical Thinking | Providing Reasons for Christian Faith & Ethics
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RE: HOUSE DEMS- "BOOM BOOM OUT GO THE LIGHTS" - 8/4/2008 7:04:25 PM
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Dubya
Posts: 521
Joined: 10/25/2006
From: Texas
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quote:
ORIGINAL: blessedinnyc
If Americans would simply take the time to check their tire pressure, (as some on this board have mocked Obama for suggesting), we could cut imported oil by 500-700 kbpd. This is roughly as much energy as ANWR might produce when the field peaks, and it would require a much smaller investment.
Obama was mocked (as well he should be) because this assertion is absolutely laughable. The assumptions being made are excessively optimistic based on an extremely poor assumption that all tires are under-inflated to the point of being flat! It is also based on an unreasonable optimistic view that all people would suddenly keep all of their tires optimally inflated all of the time. Give me a break!
Also, as an engineer, I am very, very sceptical of the savings claims even if all the optimistic assumptions could be realized.
quote:
Another quick and easy fix would be to reduce the national speed limit to 55 mph. Even the American Enterprise Institute, which opposes this, concedes that it could reduce oil consumption by 200 kbpd.
Another unbelieveable claim. Again, with this claim we have some history as a resource. The reduction of the speed limit in 1973 was supposed of save 2 % of gasoline consumption. Later studies showed less than 1% was realized (many studies put that number closer to 0.5%) for the cars which obeyed the speed limit. The sad fact was that this law was widely disobeyed throughout the country. It was finally overturned largely due to non-compliance.
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RE: HOUSE DEMS- "BOOM BOOM OUT GO THE LIGHTS" - 8/4/2008 7:27:21 PM
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iluvatar
Posts: 1451
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quote:
ORIGINAL: earthless
Anyone else catch George Stephnapolous' weekend program with Nancy Pelosi? He asked her TEN times about why she would not have a straight up or down vote on drilling. Every time she dodged the question.
I have to give him credit on being persistent. She is unreal and makes Slick Willy blush in her stone-walling.
I didn't see the interview, but that tactic is pretty much standard for politicians of any color. It seems to me that the higher their position, the worse they are.
-Dan.
_____________________________
Well, I've been to one world fair, a picnic, and a rodeo, and that's the stupidest thing I ever heard come over a set of earphones.
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RE: HOUSE DEMS- "BOOM BOOM OUT GO THE LIGHTS" - 8/4/2008 10:06:57 PM
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colliefan
Posts: 2519
Joined: 4/12/2005
From: Raleigh, NC
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quote:
These are all of the freebies. T. Boone Pickens is currently developing a wind field in north Texas
What happens when the land of the proposed farm is the home of the rare left-footed Italian dirt diver and the rarer purple-winged warbler that cannot be risked turning into bird puree?
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RE: HOUSE DEMS- "BOOM BOOM OUT GO THE LIGHTS" - 8/4/2008 10:47:01 PM
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blessedinnyc
Posts: 1672
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quote:
ORIGINAL: colliefan
quote:
These are all of the freebies. T. Boone Pickens is currently developing a wind field in north Texas
What happens when the land of the proposed farm is the home of the rare left-footed Italian dirt diver and the rarer purple-winged warbler that cannot be risked turning into bird puree?
Relax. It's Texas. All the endangered species went extinct a long time ago. Even the southern liberals and environmentalists. 
< Message edited by blessedinnyc -- 8/4/2008 11:34:08 PM >
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RE: HOUSE DEMS- "BOOM BOOM OUT GO THE LIGHTS" - 8/5/2008 11:08:18 AM
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freakofnature
Posts: 739
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Who here agrees that the democrat party actually doesn't care about the American public??? Anyone, Anyone... Bueller, Bueller, Bueller.
Well it maybe confirmed that Pelosi is taking the "political heat" for the good of the party:
Pelosi/Democrat plan to stall.
I mean I guess we all kinda figured that this is what was going on but there is such a larger plan for the democrats. Meanwhile their goal ultimately is breaking the back of the American public. Do they really care about anything else other than themselves????????
Where is John Stossel when you need him? If this isnt' a "GIVE ME A BREAK" segment, I don't know what is.
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RE: HOUSE DEMS- "BOOM BOOM OUT GO THE LIGHTS" - 8/5/2008 12:34:46 PM
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earthless
Posts: 5397
Joined: 4/11/2005
From: where pigeons are getting their sweaters ready....
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quote:
ORIGINAL: iluvatar
quote:
ORIGINAL: earthless
Anyone else catch George Stephnapolous' weekend program with Nancy Pelosi? He asked her TEN times about why she would not have a straight up or down vote on drilling. Every time she dodged the question.
I have to give him credit on being persistent. She is unreal and makes Slick Willy blush in her stone-walling.
I didn't see the interview, but that tactic is pretty much standard for politicians of any color. It seems to me that the higher their position, the worse they are.
-Dan.
She claimed she wouldn't do these games when she was running. But I digress.
_____________________________
Probing Today's Religious Movements | Promoting Doctrinal Discernment & Critical Thinking | Providing Reasons for Christian Faith & Ethics
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RE: The Energy Blame Game - 8/6/2008 11:19:38 AM
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tafkam
Posts: 2196
Joined: 9/23/2005
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Evangel70, in a rare moment, we agree....President Bush has been virutally MIA for months on any number of issues...it's almost like he's marking time until his administration is over.
This is NOT the same man who inspired America so well in the aftermath of 9/11...
_____________________________
"The nine most terrifying words in the English language are, 'I'm from the government and I'm here to help.' - Ronald Reagan
Tafkam
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RE: The Energy Blame Game - 8/6/2008 3:29:39 PM
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Leon_Figg3
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Could it possibly be that as his presidency comes to an end he is trying to set the stage for his successor to have somewhat of a chance to have an easier time of it than he did so that issues could actually be addressed?
Could it be that he is doing more work out of the limelight so that the Legislative and Executive branches of government, instead all the fault- finding, inaction, name calling, and political gamemanship, that has been going on, could actually do something to avert some of the problems our country and the world may face in a realitively short time?
In the course of some recent occasions I believe that Bush has expressed concern for the administration that will follow his, no matter whose that may be.
_____________________________
To whom much is given, much is expected. Luke 12:48
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RE: The Energy Blame Game - 8/6/2008 5:07:53 PM
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Sophie11
Posts: 720
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Leon_Figg3
Could it possibly be that as his presidency comes to an end he is trying to set the stage for his successor to have somewhat of a chance to have an easier time of it than he did so that issues could actually be addressed?
Could it be that he is doing more work out of the limelight so that the Legislative and Executive branches of government, instead all the fault- finding, inaction, name calling, and political gamemanship, that has been going on, could actually do something to avert some of the problems our country and the world may face in a realitively short time?
In the course of some recent occasions I believe that Bush has expressed concern for the administration that will follow his, no matter whose that may be.
I kind of doubt it. Bush seemed to do an about face the day after the last election. I'm sorry to say he is nothing more than another lying politician, just like the rest. He just had an easier time hoodwinking the public due to the emotions over 911.
And yes, I voted for him, twice. I simply think he fell extremely short of expectations to say the least.
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RE: The Energy Blame Game - 8/6/2008 5:12:04 PM
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freakofnature
Posts: 739
Joined: 1/17/2008
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quote:
And yes, I voted for him, twice. I simply think he fell extremely short of expectations to say the least.
Except the only other choices were Gore and Kerry! So I don't think the 2 vote policy was all bad...
P.S. Who keeps changing the "headlines" to my threads? This is the 2nd time this has happened. The first time, whoever changed it was completely off base. and this "new" headline is "The Energy Blame Game?" This thread was started to discuss the democrats turning off the lights and taking their vacation not "energy blame game!"
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RE: The Energy Blame Game - 8/6/2008 5:53:47 PM
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Leon_Figg3
Posts: 522
Joined: 4/24/2005
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freakofnature,
I noticed the change to whenI made my post, but I thought it was just me.
Perhaps you should contact administrators.
I think I have noticed this kind of thing before when one thread is blended into another, but similar, thread. The trouble is on the list of threads in Current Events, the origional title still exists.
_____________________________
To whom much is given, much is expected. Luke 12:48
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